Tropical Convection in the Caribbean and Surrounding Region during a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982–2020

Warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have implications for the climate-sensitive Caribbean region, including potential impacts on precipitation. SSTs been shown to influence deep convection and rainfall, thus understanding of warming is important predicting regional hydrometeorological conditions. This study investigates long-term annual seasonal trends in using Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) tropical from 1982–2020. The GDI used describe type precipitation events characterized by sub-indices that represent heat moisture availability, cool/warm mid-levels at 500 hPa, subsidence inversion, which drive Late, Early, Dry Rainfall Seasons, respectively. Results show are annually per season, while regionally averaged values decreasing Season. Spatial analyses demonstrates higher, statistically significant correlations with across region than temperatures, season. Moreover, climatology results exhibits a bimodal pattern resembling characteristic experienced many parts surrounding region. However, drivers these conditions need further investigation as continue rise experiences drying trend.